News Journal: Trump is alienating United States’ important, longstanding European allies

The reaction outside the United States when President Trump announced earlier this month that we would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal was immediate and overwhelmingly negative. The announcement drew mixed reviews here at home, but I think it is fair to say most Americans greeted it with a shrug of indifference.
It’s not that they don’t care, but the whole thing is just so complex. And nothing seems to have changed, so what’s the big deal?
I’m here to tell you it is a very, very big deal. In addition to destabilizing a Middle East that is already a powder keg, we are heading into uncharted waters that could permanently damage longstanding alliances.
Let’s examine what is at stake with them.
According to the White House, the re-imposition of sanctions will take three steps, with a complete return to the pre-agreement sanctions starting on Aug. 6 and ending on Nov. 4.
“Persons engaging in activity undertaken pursuant to the U.S. sanctions relief provided for in the JCPOA,” the official statement said, “should take the steps necessary to wind down those activities by either August 6, 2018, or November 4, 2018, as applicable, to avoid exposure to sanctions or an enforcement action under U.S. law.”
In plain English, that means we are threatening sanctions against all of the other signatories to the agreement — France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia, and China — unless they go along with our unilateral withdrawal.
To no one’s surprise, those countries are angry about being bullied. Within a week, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was welcomed in both Russia and China for discussions to preserve the deal. German Prime Minister Angela Merkel said our exit from the agreement was a major mistake and undermined global trust.
French President Emmanuel Macron called Iran President Hassan Rouhani and “emphasized the willingness of France to continue enforcing the Iran nuclear agreement in all respects.” UK Prime Minister Theresa May also announced that she had telephone talks with President Rouhani and had reiterated “to him that the UK and its European partners remained committed to the Iran nuclear deal.”
Is it possible for the deal to survive without U.S. participation? Probably not, given National Security Advisor John Bolton’s threat that “countries that continue to deal with Iran could face U.S. sanctions.”

That threat isn’t really directed at Russia, given the sanctions we have already imposed on it, or even China, which is far less dependent on the U.S. financial system than our European allies. So the most likely scenario is that the agreement will fall apart and the UK, Germany (whose trade with Iran was over $4 billion last year), and France (whose Total SA oil company has a $5 billion contract it will lose) will bear the severe economic consequences.
Add this to the general tariff war Trump has already started against our European allies, and it is no wonder EU President Tusk recently said about the United States, “With friends like this, who needs enemies?”
Make no mistake about it. Europeans are now reassessing their relationship with us.
“Thanks to [President Trump] we have got rid of all illusions,” the EU leader continued. “He has made us realize that if you need a helping hand you will find one at the end of your arm.”
What’s going to happen when we need a helping hand? What happens if Iran resumes its nuclear program and the UK, France, and Germany don’t like the kind of sanctions we would impose? What happens if things really heat up?
Iran is a far more powerful nation than Iraq. Are we going to go to war with Iran, as we did with Iraq, virtually alone?
I don’t have the answers to any of these questions. More importantly, I don’t think the Trump administration does either.
Our president has fulfilled a campaign promise and undone another legacy of the predecessor he despises. Most Republican and Democratic foreign policy experts I talk to agree that, as with so many other things he has done, there is no long-term plan or strategy.
Before the end of the year, we may have to live with the fact that he has permanently alienated our most important longstanding allies.
Ted Kaufman is a former U.S. Senator from Delaware