News Journal: Speculation on presidential candidates is pointless

Our neighbors, Virginia and New Jersey, are both critically important states politically and hold statewide elections in an off year, one year after the presidential elections. Pundits often view these elections as the first indication from real voters, not polls, of how the political climate is changing.

In 2009, when Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie became the new governors of Virginia and New Jersey, they became instant national figures.

They also went on to become even more popular with their state’s voters, and by 2012 both were in the running to become Mitt Romney’s running mate. Both were often mentioned as possible presidential candidates in 2016.

In fact, one late 2013 poll had Christie ahead of Hillary Clinton in a 2016 race.

That was then, just a few months ago for McDonnell and a few weeks ago for Christie. This is now.

A year is an eternity in politics. You’ve heard that often, but we have seldom seen two better examples of how true it is.

Some of the people who ordered those Christie for President/2016 buttons the first week of January may now be regretting it.

Less than a month after his deputy chief of staff’s “time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee” email was uncovered, the New Jersey governor is knee-deep in federal and state investigations that will determine his role in the traffic jam and a few other instances of possible political payback. No one has found any direct link to him and he has vehemently denied that one exists. Nevertheless, he has fallen a long way from being the front-runner for his party’s nomination for President in 2016 and may never recover.

In McDonnell’s case, a federal grand jury has issued a 14-point indictment against him and his wife for “allegedly participating in a scheme to violate federal public corruption laws.”

They are, of course, innocent until proven guilty. Virginia’s laws against a governor accepting gifts are notoriously lax, and accepting what the indictment says was more than $165,000 from one businessman is not a crime unless a quid pro quo can be established. That could be difficult. But even if the McDonnell’s trial ends with a verdict of innocence, the political damage has been done. You don’t get to run for president after accepting free Oscar de la Renta dresses and Rolexes from a guy who wants your help promoting his business.

With notable exceptions, scandals are the most obvious cause of very rapid changes in political prospects. But looking back just in our recent past, there are a lot of other examples. I could embarrass quite a few pundits who solemnly analyzed the 2012 Republican presidential field as early as 2009 and decided that Gov. Rick Perry was the obvious front-runner. Then came the debates.

Many of those same pundits were convinced as early as 2004 that Hillary Clinton could not be beaten in the 2008 Democratic race. And for at least a couple of years before 2008, Rudy Giuliani was the odds-on-favorite on the Republican side.

I can remember back in 1976 with Jimmy Carter and 1990 with Bill Clinton how far-fetched it seemed to most of us that a little-known governor of a small state could ever be a serious contender for the Democratic presidential nomination.

I could go on, but the point is this: Don’t pay much, if any, attention, to all the prognosticators who tell you what’s going to happen, and with whom, in the 2016 election.

Much of what we hear about politics these days is a result of the 24/7 cable news channels desperate need to fill airtime. My idea of exquisite torture would be to have to watch one of them for hours at a time on a slow news day, featuring talking heads who can pontificate on anything without knowing much at all.

What they don’t know, and I certainly don’t, is what is going to happen in the next couple of years that will dramatically affect the 2016 election. Is Hillary inevitable? Will Marco Rubio or Paul Ryan or Rand Paul run? The real question is, why are we asking those questions now, when so much can –and will –change?

Poll after poll shows that most Americans think our presidential campaigns are too long. Presidential contenders McDonnell and Christie are proof positive that starting them years before Election Day is just plain silly.

Ted Kaufman is a former U.S. senator from Delaware.