News Journal: Putin’s Ukraine plans fraught with danger

I spent last week in Ukraine as co-leader of a multinational delegation sponsored by the National Democratic Institute.
The NDI is a nonprofit, nonpartisan, nongovernmental organization that since 1983 has worked to establish and strengthen democratic institutions in every region of the world. One of its primary goals is to impartially assess and safeguard elections. As the report we issued on our return says, our delegation went to Ukraine in advance of its scheduled May 25 presidential, parliamentary and local elections to “review the broader political environment within which the election will take place; examine factors that could affect the integrity of the electoral process; and offer recommendations to support increased dialogue and consensus-building toward peaceful, credible elections and public confidence in the process.”
I hope we did some of that successfully. I do know we were able to get a good snapshot of how Ukraine has been functioning since the successful ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych after the drama of the deadly “Maidan” demonstrations in Kyiv’s (Kiev to us) central square.
You can read the report at https://www.ndi.org/files/Ukraine-PEAM-041114-1.pdf. All eight members of the delegation came away from the meetings with a strong conviction that, barring foreign interference, Ukraine could have free, fair and transparent elections.
Developments since our return on April 12 have done nothing to quiet these concerns. Russia continues to assist local pro-Russian agitators in taking over government facilities in eastern Ukraine. These moves, in addition to the massing of Russian troops along Ukraine’s border, are eerily similar to those that led to Russia’s occupation and takeover of Crimea. A large majority of the Ukrainians we talked to believe that, absent U.S. and E.U. political and financial assistance, Putin will do anything to stop the elections. Under present Ukraine law if developments reach the point where a “state of emergency” is declared the elections would have to be postponed.
I can’t stress enough how important it is that Ukraine go ahead with the May 25 elections. The former government’s corruption left the interim government with literally no money. That interim government is doing a good job, but it is clear that, without the validation of being elected, its members are having a hard time coping with the financial and political problems they face.
I hope Putin is beginning to realize that, although he has made some short-term gains in popularity within Russia, his longer-term outlook is fraught with danger. Russia’s growth is slowing and the ruble has crashed in the past few weeks. Even before this crisis, Putin was forced to publicly admit there has been a widespread capital flight from the country. Russia is in great need of capital to modernize its industries, but multinational corporations are holding back because the necessary investments do not promise attractive returns. In addition, low cost oil and gas development in the rest of the world lowers the advantage of positioning plants in Russia.
He may be riding a wave of popularity today, but Putin knows that nothing sours a country’s citizens on its leaders faster than a declining economy with rising unemployment.
Since I left the country, there has been an increase in violence in eastern Ukraine. But on Thursday, four-way talks began in Geneva, involving the E.U., Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. The first news from that conference was positive, with a joint resolution to de-escalate the crisis. The resolution was immediately denounced by the leader of the pro-Russian separatists in the east, however, so what effect it will have is unclear. It really does all come down to Putin and what his long-term strategy is. If he doesn’t reign in the separatists and they make holding the May 25 elections impossible, it is very possible that what is now a regional issue will become a full-blown global crisis, one that could well adversely affect economies around the world, including ours.
Ted Kaufman is a former U.S. senator from Delaware.